Three trends in the development of the hottest pho

2022-07-31
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The three major trends of photovoltaic industry development are the same as those of automobiles, semiconductors and interconnection. The solar photovoltaic industry is experiencing periodic shocks and is facing the greatest uncertainty and risk in the history of industrial prosperity. At present, there are more than 750 solar PV enterprises on the register. After this round of reshuffle, almost all enterprises will fall to the floor. Who lies on the ground, who squats, and who stands depends on their own mode and internal ability

for China's solar photovoltaic enterprises with a short history, they have little experience in industrial development and rely more on their own exploration to grasp the future trend

Fang Peng, CEO of Jingao Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., told the manager. The current difficulties are temporary. In the long run, we should be optimistic

the last two years: in 2010, the growth rate of the industry was about 135%. Even in 2011, which is called the cold winter, there was still an increase of about 40%, which is quite high compared with other industries. We interviewed many CEOs and senior executives of solar photovoltaic enterprises and shared their judgments on the future trend of the solar photovoltaic industry with the industry

the pace of commercialization accelerates

2012 will be better than last year. Last year was the worst year. The downstream prices have dropped, but the upstream prices have not moved, so the midstream is greatly squeezed. However, since the fourth quarter of last year, silicon wafers and silicon materials have decreased significantly. This year, the battery and photovoltaic module industry is in a relatively balanced state

the global solar PV market will be generally good. Recently, there have been a lot of negative news from Europe, such as the decline of subsidies. In my opinion, don't understand it from the negative. Why did it decline? The larger the scale, the more market-oriented, the less subsidies will be. This is a good thing. This industry has become market driven from government driven. Solar energy is not far from the second spring

from the perspective of industry development cycle, integration should be carried out every few years, but it is difficult for China's solar energy to be integrated. There is no prediction and long-term planning in this market. Many enterprises come in on a large scale only to make money. After large-scale surplus, it will have a great impact on small enterprises, and then fight a price war to disrupt the whole market price

however, this kind of interference cannot exist for a long time. Finally, it needs to be integrated. In the future, the terminal market will become more and more concentrated. There are quality, capital and management requirements for suppliers. It is difficult for small enterprises or non-standard enterprises to enter. Moreover, their capital channels have been cut off, and it is impossible for them to be listed. Because the market is mature, small enterprises lacking scale will be out. However, their exit time is relatively slow, and it may take twoorthree cycles. They will choose to leave only when they can't afford it

brand and management are becoming more and more important

I think solar PV is still expanding its development and influence in the world. Domestic production-oriented enterprises must pay attention to cost control, new product development and brand building. At the same time, we should also deal with the general trend of RMB appreciation and euro depreciation, as well as the increasing anti-dumping investigation and game

in 2011, there were many blind behaviors in the industry. The short-term supply far exceeded the demand, but the high inventory is a temporary phenomenon, which has been greatly relieved. Due to the pressure of production costs, most of those entering the trough are production-oriented enterprises, as well as engineering companies and distributors who are not fully prepared for market changes

for domestic production-oriented enterprises, it is time for transformation. Cost control is a big core, and we need to deepen our internal skills. In the previous frenzied expansion of production, the management did not pay attention to the details. The talents and equipment purchased at high prices did not play a role in the face of the crisis. For those enterprises that have established international brands, it is suggested that they continue to maintain their own brands and increase investment in brands, so as not to lose this advantage in the face of crisis

the products of photovoltaic module enterprises are too single, so it is necessary to increase the development of new products. In conclusion, we should reduce costs in production and management, and increase investment in brand and R & D. Of course, there is another argument in the industry about the merger and acquisition of overseas project companies and engineering companies. My judgment is that the merger and acquisition is easy, and it is difficult to manage and integrate this is the most ideal material for the filament extruder. It needs strong operation ability and team accumulation. Instead of spending energy on it, it is better to do a good job in production, R & D and brand building

the market is becoming increasingly diversified

it is difficult to predict the European market. The European debt crisis is still fermenting. What you can foresee will not be solved in a short time. This will affect the policies of various countries on solar PV. From the perspective of Germany, one policy every two months changes rapidly. At present, the photovoltaic market largely depends on the stability of policies. The future European market is uncertain. Italy, Germany and France are not very optimistic. On the contrary, some countries in Central Europe, such as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, may have growth. Therefore, generally speaking, Europe will decline by about 10%, while Germany and Italy will lose more, which can be made up by other countries, This is our general estimate of the European market

the United States is also a large market, but now the components and parts have to be taxed, and the double reverse can not be solved in a short time. Even if there are factories in the United States, their quantity can not meet the demand. What should be done for China's solar photovoltaic enterprises? To invest in factories overseas to meet the needs of the American market, or to give up the one-year warranty market, I don't think we will give up. Although emerging markets such as Asia, Africa and the Middle East have just started, they will become more and more important

solar power generation will be very promising in the future. The current supply and demand is not really supply and demand, but demand has not been dug out. First, there is no real integration of electricity. For example, I have a villa and want to install two solar panels. For example, in European countries, I use solar energy to generate electricity for my own use. The unused electricity can be integrated into electricity and sold to the country. When it is not enough, I can buy it from electricity. This cannot be achieved in China. Second, we still rely on the government for food and have not realized the real commercialization, which will take time to solve

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